Fourth Quarter
Friday December 16, 2005
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Just another election in Iraq. Third one this year. From nothing to a full-scale, functioning democracy in about 18 months.
The International Republican Institute (IRI) has been conducting operations in Iraq since we forced Saddam into his spider hole. In the run-up to the election yesterday, the IRI conducted a survey which had some surprising results.
One of which is the standard "Right Direction / Wrong Track" question. In this poll, 49% of Iraqis said things are "generally headed in the right direction" as opposed to 36% who disagreed.
This, of course, is seen as proof of America's failure in Iraq because less than half of the survey thinks things are going well. All over the cable news channels yesterday, opponents of the Bush strategy were claiming that anything less than perfection will be deemed a failure.
Imagine how columnists in the Popular Press would be angsting if the Iraqi Right Track number were in the low 40s. Or even the 30s.
We'd be reading about how Iraq is on the verge of total collapse; that the Kurds will be leaving Iraq to form their own country by next Tuesday, the latest.
As it happens, the Right Direction Wrong Track number to the latest AP/Ipsos poll of Americans is: 33% - 64%.
Whoa! Check please!
I don't see that much evidence of an impending civil war in the US; or California considering leaving the US to form its own country - much as that might appeal to the rest of us.
Also in the IRI poll, people were asked what they wanted the new parliament to consider its highest priority. 61% said rebuilding the country's infrastructure and economic development should top their list of to-dos.
Only 13% thought that getting the coalition forces to withdraw should be first out of the box.
The Sunnis had more-or-less boycotted the previous two elections. The turnout in the Sunni areas was so strong yesterday that several polling places had to order more ballots to be brought in and they had to stay open late.
According to the bravest person I know, Mullpal Susan Phalen who was in Fallujah (a center of Sunni-led opposition) escorting journalists there, via e-mail:
For the city proper of Fallujah [election officials] are estimating nearly 140,000 ballots were cast. For Fallujah and its environs, the number is between 250,000 and 280,000 votes. Voter turn out for Fallujah and the surrounding area is predicted by the local officials at 85% to 95%.
The Sunnis have decided that joining the democracy will be better for them in the long run than supporting the insurgency.
Again, from Susan Phalen:
On a concrete wall outside [a polling place] was a spray-painted sign. Written in Arabic, it translated into "Democratic elections is the only way to end the violence".
This is much-improved graffiti from last October when we visited that same polling location and the graffiti spray painted on the wall read, "Death to the Americans".
It will take about three weeks to sort out the results of this election, and a new government should take form about mid-January.
The Coalition Provisional Authority returned sovereignty to the Iraqi people just about 18 months ago. Over the next six months we should have a pretty good idea as to how well this is all going to work out.
This, in effect, is the beginning of the fourth quarter of President Bush's Iraq policy. We should all be rooting for the Iraqi people to score a big victory for human rights and freedom.
New Topic: In every organization there are people who operate out of the limelight but without whom that light would not shine at all, or would cast its beam on an empty stage.
Such a person here at Manning, Selvage & Lee (where I spend about half of my time) is a young woman named Melissa DeLaney.
Tomorrow is her birthday (which she happens to share with my mom) and this is her birthday card.
Happy birthday, Melissa.
On the Secret Decoder Ring today: A link to the IRI poll, a photo of Susan Phalen, et. al, from a "Good Morning Mesopotamia" column, another really sophomoric Mullfoto, and a Catchy Caption of the Day.
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Copyright © 2005 Richard A. Galen
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