That Blue Tsunami
Thursday October 4, 2018
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- As you know, the only thing I'm worse at than predicting political winners and losers, is picking winning and losing stocks. Hence my 401(k) is a 200.5(k). But, that's a column for another time.
- Before we get into what political geniuses here inside the Beltway are calling "The Kavanaugh Effect" I'd like you to take a few seconds and subscribe to MULLINGS.
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- The great Brett Kavanaugh melodrama should come to an end this weekend with an up-or-down vote on being confirmed as an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court.
- The betting line here is he will be confirmed.
- From the moment the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Ia) gaveled the first hearing to order, the 10 Democrats on the committee have sought to delay the proceedings.
- If you remember, with Judge Kavanaugh sitting in the witness chair, we were greeted to Democrats attempting to shout down Grassley by demanding the Committee adjourn even before it began its business; they demanded more documents be released by the White House, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) acted like a moron when he attempted to release confidential documents with a "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" speech only to find out those very documents had been de-classified the night before; and so on.
- That didn't even count a well-organized band of demonstrators each standing up in the hearing room only to be escorted out and replaced by another demonstrator who would be disruptive on cue.
- Sen. Grassley was unfazed by all this and, after everyone had his or her turn at boosting (Rs) or demeaning (Ds) Kavanaugh was ready to move to a committee vote which would have approved sending his nomination to the floor by dint of the 11-10 voting majority on the side of the aforementioned Rs.
- Then the senior (we call it the "ranking") Democrat on the Judiciary Committee Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-Ca) announced that she had received a letter from someone named Dr. Christine Blasey Ford.
- Dr. Ford, as everyone in the known galaxy came to find out, accused Judge Kavanaugh of sexual assault at a party when they were both in high school.
- All that led to the FBI being directed to talk to more people about Kavanaugh's reported social instabilities and report back within a week.
- Another delay.
- The FBI did not interview everyone on the planet. We don't know who they did and didn't interview but as the FBI has lost its claim to being leak-proof over the past few years, if they thought they were being muzzled by the White House will would have/will hear about it.
- Senate Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) began the process of getting to that up-or-down vote when he announced on Wednesday his intention of holding a cloture vote on Friday. That will likely be followed by the final vote on Saturday.
- Unless Senate Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) can think of some other delaying tactic.
- Throughout all this we have been assured by very serious people on very serious panels on very serious cable networks that this whole thing had so infuriated women that the "Blue Wave" election had surely become a "Blue Tsunami" election - one which would sweep Republicans out of power like a tidal wave sweeps whole towns off an Indonesian island.
- Salon.com (a progressive-leaning site) noted:
"The margin between Democrats and Republicans dropped by half, from a 14 point difference to a 7 point difference, over a period of less than three weeks.
- On the enthusiasm front, NPR reported
"In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were "very important." Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie."
- So, there are one of two conclusions:
- First, the promised "Blue Tsunami" might just be a high-than-normal political tide. Democrats might do just about as well as they should in a mid-term election with a Republican in the White House.
- Or, second, tsunamis announce their arrival by producing a far lower than usual tide, before rushing back in and doing all its damage.
- We'll know the answer in about 33 days.
- On the Secret Decoder Ring today: Links to the Wikipedia page on Tsunamis, and to that NPR poll.
The Mullfoto is of an office window on L Street, NW in Our Nation's Capitol.
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