The Thinker: Rich Galen


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That Creaking Sound

Rich Galen

Thursday July 23, 2015


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  • Quinnipiac University is, it says on its webpage, "a private, coeducational university with 6,500 undergraduate and 2,500 graduate students." It's main campus is in Connecticut.

  • But, while Quinnipiac University may have grown a reputation as being ranked as "one of the best universities by U.S. News & World Report, it is far better known for conducting survey research.

  • Political polls.

  • A poll released yesterday, if every microphone and camera in the near Solar System were not trained on (a) Pluto and (b) Donald Trump would have turned the political world on its ear.

  • Quinnipiac took a look at the head-to-head races between Hillary Clinton and each of the major Republican candidates in what it called "swing states:" Colorado, Virginia, and Iowa.

  • These are hypothetical general election match-ups.

  • Clinton loses to Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio in each of the states. Here are the numbers:
    In Colorado
    Rubio 46 - Clinton 38
    Walker 47 - Clinton 38
    Bush 41 - Clinton 38

    In Iowa

    Rubio 44 - Clinton 36
    Walker 45 - Clinton 37
    Bush 42 - Clinton 36

    In Virginia

    Rubio 43 - Clinton 41
    Walker 43 - Clinton 40
    Bush 42 - Clinton 39

  • According to Quinnipiac, Clinton was ahead or on the plus side of "too close to call" in all nine match-ups this past April.

  • Eight years ago, as we have discussed before, there were knowing nods at lunches and dinners in steak houses all over Our Nation's Capital that this Barack Obama guy could not, would not, stop the Hillary Clinton juggernaut.

  • A funny thing happened on the way to her Inauguration on the West Front of the Capitol. She came in third in Iowa (a fraction of a percentage point behind John "Big Daddy" Edwards) and seven points behind Senator Obama.

  • Obama "won" Iowa with about 37 percent of the vote. Clinton and Edwards sliced up 30 percent each.

  • This poll has more bad news for Sec. Clinton. According to the analysis [the underlines are in the Quinnipiac release]:
    Colorado voters say 62 - 34 percent that Hillary Clinton is not honest and trustworthy; 52 - 46 percent that she has strong leadership qualities and 57 - 39 percent that she does not care about their needs and problems.

  • In Iowa
    "Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Iowa voters say 59 - 33 percent. She is a strong leader, voters say 52 - 43 percent, but she does not care about their needs and problems, voters say 55 - 39 percent."

  • And, in Virginia
    "Clinton is not honest and trustworthy, Virginia voters say 55 - 39 percent. She is a strong leader, voters say 54 - 42 percent, but she does not care about their needs and problems, voters say 50 - 45 percent."

  • Another contender, the analysis says, Democratic U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, runs as well as, or better than Clinton against Rubio, Bush and Walker. Vice President Joseph Biden does not do as well.

  • Even the good news "is a strong leader" is bad news. The release states
    "On being a strong leader, a key metric in presidential campaigns, she has dropped four to 10 points depending on the state and she is barely above 50 percent in each of the three states."

  • More? Ok. On the Fave-Unfave chart (do you have a favorable view of Hillary Clinton) she is severely underwater in all three states: In Colorado 35-56, in Iowa 33-56, and in Virginia 41-50.

  • Vice President Joe Biden has similar numbers in Colorado and Iowa but is plus 2 (46-44) in Virginia.

  • Donald Trump? Oh, yes, beloved wherever people were asked about him. In Colorado his Fave-Unfave numbers are 31-58, in Iowa 32-57, and in Virginia 32-61.

  • Does this mean that Hillary Clinton's candidacy is in trouble?

  • Not necessarily. Bernie Sanders is not going away, but it is difficult to see him actually winning a two-person primary to get the nomination.

  • No, the problem for Clinton is this: Every Governor and ex-Governor; every Senator and ex-Senator hums "Hail to the Chief" to themselves while they brush their teeth each and every morning to see if they can make it fit.

  • If one of them decides Clinton is not the surefire winner that her supporters have been claiming then they might decide to take a shot. If one legit Democrat decides to take on Clinton, others will follow.

  • That creaking sound is the Democrat door leading to the primary campaign that has opened just a crack.

    Lad Link: Reed remains on Trump Watch in this week's column: Trump Awakens the Establishment.

  • On the Secret Decoder Ring today: A link to the Quinnipiac poll release.

    Also an amusing Mullfoto of me in San Francisco last week.

    -- END --

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