Then There Were 23
Thursday May 16, 2019
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- Start Spreadin' the News: New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Thursday morning that he was adding his name to the list of Americans running for the Democratic nomination for President.
- On the one hand, it only serves to prove my theory that every elected official in New York or California believes residents of the other 49 states are secretly cheering them on. On the other hand if you asked non-political people in those other 49 states to name the Mayor of New York more would probably guess Nelson Rockefeller than Bill de Blasio.
- The people who make a living at this sort of thing now put the number of Democrats in the race at 23.
- Maybe de Blasio and his advisors believe that if there is going to be a serious Mayor in this race, it's going to be the Mayor of New York City (pop. 8.6 million), not the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (pop. 102,000).
- New York has a song. Lots of songs. Songs of hope: "If you can make it here, you can make it anywhere." Songs of geography: "The Bronx is up and the Battery's down." Songs of nostalgia: "Give my regards to Broadway."
- No one has ever written a popular song about South Bend, Indiana. Even the Notre Dame fight song doesn't mention South Bend.
- Gary, Indiana has a song. From The Music Man. South Bend. No.
- It seems to me that people like Mayor de Blasio and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock - who joined the race earlier this week - are really saying that they didn't believe the existing field is strong enough to beat Donald Trump in November 2020.
- I can't wait until we see how the Democratic National Committee finally structures the many debates which, as I understand it, begin with two in Miami, Florida on June 26 and June 27.
- Maybe, instead of having the candidates spread across the stage, NBC (which is producing the first debates) should reach back and build a set like "Hollywood Squares" Three up, four across with the highest polling candidate drawing the Paul Lynde and Cliff Arquette spots in the center.
- Peter Marshall saying "X gets the square" after a correct answer by, say Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton (he's one of the 23 candidates) would drive ratings through the roof.
- The real beneficiary of de Blasio getting into the race is, not Donald Trump, but Joe Biden. As the field is further diluted by another potentially well-funded candidate - one who pushes on candidates already running as some variant of a Socialist - Biden's lead over the field becomes harder for Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, or the Mayor of South Bend, Indiana to overcome.
- Speaking of polls, which I was not going to do in this column, a poll released this week by Quinnipiac University of voters in Pennsylvania shows that same Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by double digits 53 - 42.
- As many others have told us many times, a poll taken 18 days ahead of an election should not be considered predictive. One taken 18 months ahead of an election is only interesting because we're tired of mocking South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
- That poll also shows Bernie Sanders beating Trump in Pennsylvania by seven percentage points, 50-43. Sen. Elizabeth Warren leads Trump by 3 percentage points 47-44; Kamala Harris. Beto O'Rourke, and Buttigieg are all just about tied with Trump in the mid-40s.
- Remember, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania by only 44,292 votes out of nearly 5.9 million votes cast. Pennsylvania carries 20 electoral votes which, in 2016, would not have been enough to throw the election to Clinton had it gone the other way, but Pennsylvania is not called "The Keystone State" for nothing.
- Another day, another Democrat running for President.
- In the Secret Decoder Ring page today: Bill de Blasio's bio, and his announcement video. Also the Gary, Indiana song from The Music Man, the current list of Democratic candidates via the NY Times, and a link to that Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters.
The Mullfoto is from C-SPAN's Howard Mortman showing how a little creativity can really dress up your car.
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