Post-ABC Poll: Bush, Gore Even

By Dan Balz and Richard Morin
Washington Post Staff Writers

Friday , September 8, 2000 ; A1

Al Gore and George W. Bush are locked in a dead-even race for the White House, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, with Gore having consolidated gains he made at his convention and enjoying the edge on who is best equipped to handle the issues voters say are most important to them.

The Post-ABC poll reveals an electorate that is sharply divided over the choice for president in November but relatively contented with both major-party candidates. With two months remaining before Election Day, the poll foreshadows a fiercely competitive contest as Gore tries to capitalize on the strong economy and Bush seeks to make a compelling case for changing parties after eight years of Democratic control.

In a four-way matchup, Gore and Bush each received 47 percent support among likely voters, with Green Party nominee Ralph Nader at 3 percent and disputed Reform Party nominee Patrick J. Buchanan an asterisk. In a hypothetical two-way race, Bush led Gore 49 percent to 47 percent.

The polls taken immediately after Labor Day are considered especially important by presidential candidates because they are the first that measure the lasting impact of the summer political conventions, and they mark the moment in the race that many Americans begin to pay serious attention to the candidates.

In the past four elections, the candidate ahead at Labor Day has gone on to win the White House. Twice since World War II -- in 1960 and 1980 -- the race was statistically tied at this stage. The 1960 race stayed close until the end, with John F. Kennedy narrowly defeating Richard M. Nixon. The 1980 contest broke open in late October, with Ronald Reagan easily defeating President Jimmy Carter. The Gore and Bush campaigns said they expect this race to remain competitive until the end.

The new Post-ABC findings represent a slight narrowing in the race since the weekend immediately after Gore's convention last month, when the Democratic nominee led Bush 48 percent to 44 percent. But more important, the poll shows the clear shift that has occurred since July, just before the two major-party conventions, when Bush led Gore by 8 percentage points.

Unlike Bush, who surged to a double-digit lead at the time of the GOP convention, only to see it begin to evaporate the following week, Gore has retained most of the support he acquired at his convention.

The race has polarized along classic lines. Men support Bush 52 percent to 38 percent, while women support Gore by an identical margin. Gore enjoys the support of about eight in 10 Democrats, while Bush has the backing of almost nine in 10 Republicans. Independent voters narrowly favor Bush. Gore holds a clear lead in the Northeast, but in every other region, including the battleground Midwest, the poll finds the race is statistically tied.

The poll is based on telephone interviews with 1,065 registered voters nationwide, including 738 likely voters, and was conducted Sept. 4-6. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the overall results and 4 percentage points for results based on the sample of likely voters.

After trailing most of the year, Gore not only has wiped out Bush's overall lead, but also has seized the advantage on a number of key questions of character and on issues.

Gore leads Bush as the candidate voters say is best able to deal with nine of the 17 issues tested in the survey, including education, health care and prescription drug benefits for the elderly, the economy and Social Security -- issues that voters said are critically important to them this year.

Bush holds a clear lead on two issues: taxes and defense. Six weeks ago, Bush led Gore on seven issues and the Democrat was favored on two: health care and the environment.

Some of these shifts have been dramatic. Five weeks ago, Bush had a 13-point advantage as the candidate best able to manage the federal budget; today, Gore leads by five points, an 18-point swing. The vice president has turned a nine-point deficit into a five-point lead on the issue of the candidate best able to handle the national economy and has gone from even with Bush on education to a 12-point advantage.

The candidates are tied on six issues, including the traditional Republican issue of crime, on which Bush had a 20-point lead in July. Neither candidate is seen as better able to reform campaign finance laws, an area where Republicans believe Gore is vulnerable. And Gore ties Bush even on one of the Republican's signature issues: changing the tone in Washington.

Gore also has managed to erase Bush's advantage as the candidate best able to encourage high moral standards and values – a clear indication that the Democrat, at least for the moment, has separated himself from the personal problems of President Clinton. Before the conventions, Bush led Gore by 11 points on this measure; today the two are tied.

The Democratic nominee also has cut into areas of Bush strength. Bush is still seen as the candidate best able to hold down taxes, but his 16-point lead on this issue in July has dwindled to six.

On issues that have divided the two candidates, those surveyed sided more with Gore's call for smaller tax cuts and his opposition to private school vouchers. But about six in 10 agree with Bush's proposal to divert some of the Social Security payroll tax to private accounts.

On personal attributes, Bush is still viewed as the stronger leader, by a 65 percent to 54 percent margin, an advantage he has enjoyed throughout the campaign. Gore has gained eight points since July, while the percentage viewing Bush as a strong leader has increased by four points.

The new Post-ABC News poll suggests that voters are feeling more comfortable with Gore, who has consistently been portrayed as distant and stiff in comparison with Bush's more open and engaging personal style.

In July, fewer than half -- 45 percent -- of voters surveyed said Gore had "an appealing personality." Today, 55 percent see Gore that way.

But Bush still is viewed as the more personable candidate; six in 10 voters -- 61 percent -- said they find Bush personally appealing and fewer than a third said he's boring, according to the poll.

More voters said they trust Gore now than offered a similar view just a few weeks ago. Sixty-three percent agreed that Gore is "honest and trustworthy" – up from 47 percent in July, bringing him even with Bush on this key character trait.

The gender gap that exists on the choice for president is even wider when voters are asked who can best handle the issues. Among the 17 issues tested by The Post and ABC, Gore leads among women on all but one of the them -- defense, where he is tied with Bush. Among men, Bush leads on 12 of the 17 issues, is tied with Gore on three and trails on three others.

On the key issue of education, which voters ranked as their top concern, Gore is preferred over Bush by 57 percent to 32 percent among women. Among men, Bush has a five-point advantage. The vice president has a 24-point lead among women as the candidate who best understands the problems of the middle class. Among men, neither candidate has an advantage.

Although voters are divided on whom they want as the next president, they have an equally high opinion of both as potential presidents. Asked to put aside their personal preference, equal percentages (69 percent) said Bush and Gore would be good presidents. By sizable margins, they said Gore and Bush are running positive campaigns, with Gore receiving slightly higher marks.

Assistant polling director Claudia Deane contributed to this report.