July 21, 2000, 5:43PM

Tossup states likely to be key to Oval Office

Rivals vie for electoral votes

By JULIE MASON
Copyright 2000 Houston Chronicle Political Writer

In campaigning for the presidency, Democrat Al Gore opened Texas headquarters in Houston and Austin for about six weeks around the March primary, then shut both of them down, apparently for the duration.

The thinking: Why bother? Gov. George W. Bush's anticipated win of his home state in November means he and not Gore will scoop up Texas' 32 electoral votes.

Consequently, both candidates are focusing time and attention elsewhere on key, battleground states in the crucial race to secure at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

"It's a fascinating election, but, of course, we're way up here in the bleachers in Texas," said Richard Murray, University of Houston political scientist and pollster.

"The battleground states from New Jersey to Missouri, that's where the candidates are just going to be living," he said.

Under the electoral vote system, each state has as many electors as it has U.S. senators and representatives. The electors are pledged to vote for whoever wins their state or, in Maine and Nebraska, their congressional district.

After the November election but before the January inauguration, electors in each state get together and cast their votes, effectively formalizing the presidential election.

Although many consider the Electoral College to be outmoded and arcane, its supporters say it prevents presidential candidates from focusing all of their time and money on the most populous states.

"There are a lot of things that are screwy about our democracy, and the Electoral College is one example," said Republican political consultant Allen Blakemore. "But if you're running for president, you have to do it."

Drawing the candidates most recently are the tossup states loaded with electoral votes that could go either way in the general election, such as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The most recent polls show Bush ahead in the electoral vote race as well as the popular one, with Bush having a tentative 170 electoral votes to Gore's 135.

Still, with several electoral vote-rich states still in play and undecided, the race remains fluid and far from over.

Pennsylvania, with 23 of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory, is considered a tossup state in the presidential contest, because polls have been showing the candidates tied.

Although President Clinton won Pennsylvania in 1992 and 1996, Gore is taking no chances. He has visited the state at least 12 times since clinching his party's nomination in March.

Still, if Bush picks Gov. Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania as his running mate, that choice could tip the state for the Republicans.

Tossup states are tricky for candidates of either party because they can't afford to be too partisan if they hope to gain an edge, said Merle Black, professor of politics and government at Emory University in Atlanta.

"Bush appears to be consolidating his conservative support and reaching out to centrists," Black said.

Black said Gore's lackluster showing in Southern states' polls is typical of Democratic presidential contenders, although as a Tennessean Gore is considered a native son.

"Southerners voted for Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Carter was from the South," Black said. "That has been the pattern here."

Some of the key Southern states in the race include Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina and especially Florida, which has 25 electoral votes and its own Bush in the governor's office.

"Florida is always a battleground state, but I think Gore will throw in the towel there earlier than he otherwise might, just because of Jeb Bush," Blakemore said referring to George W. Bush's brother.

One key state Gore has visited frequently is New York. With 33 electoral votes, New York is a necessity for Gore, and it's a state many think he can win.

With its Democratic leanings, New York is not considered a tossup state, but the fact Gore is trailing overall and badly needs it has lured him to the Empire State about 45 times since mid-March.

"If Gore can't win New York, he's finished," said Bruce E. Altschuler, political science chair at State University of New York at Oswego.

"New York is generally a Democratic state, it has a Democratic edge, and although every race doesn't turn out their way, it tends to be competitive at least," Altschuler said. "On the whole, statewide, the Democrats have an advantage."

Michigan, with its 18 electoral votes, also is playing a key role in the campaign this year. Recently, the two candidates wrangled over which party was more to blame for the nation's high gasoline prices, which hit especially hard in Michigan.

According to the latest polls in the state, Bush and Gore are tied for the popular vote. In the last two presidential elections, the state went with Clinton. Pollsters said the crucial state could turn either way.

"It's these big but not mega-big states that determine the presidential elections," Murray said. "This is where you are going to see all the television ads and the wives (of the candidates)."

Similarly, Ohio has 21 electoral votes and polls show the two candidates tied for the popular vote there, which also went to Clinton in the past two elections.

At the same time, the two Midwestern states have Republican governors: John Engler in Michigan and Bob Taft in Ohio.

Murray noted that political shifts in past elections pushed states such as Michigan and Ohio into crucial positions in presidential elections, effectively sidelining the biggest states.

"California used to be the big enchilada, but not many people think Bush will spend much time or money there, and he could get to 270 without it," Murray said.

At the same time, the popularity of Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader has Democrats worried about Gore's chances in California.

Without Nader in the mix, the Golden State's bounty of 54 electoral votes probably would go to the Democratic candidate.

If Nader takes votes from Gore, though, the state and all its electoral votes could go to Bush, even if he wins less than 50 percent of the state's popular vote.

Bush also isn't writing California off, yet. Since March, he has been there 23 times, making at least as many trips as he has made to Michigan and Ohio combined.

"I would have said Gore with no problem in California, but I think Bush has been very good about keeping his campaign in the news, and it's possible he's making some inroads here," said Ann Crigler, assistant professor of political science at the University of Southern California.

Crigler called the Nader factor "interesting" but predicted if the race between Bush and Gore looks tight, Democrats will peel off from Nader and return to Gore rather than see Bush win.

"Nader has a definite appeal right now because people are wondering about Gore's commitment to certain issues like gays and the environment," Crigler said. "But I think the real focus will come after the conventions. There is a lot of evidence that people aren't thinking about the election yet."