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Column

Katrina & Global Warming

Rich Galen

Monday August 29, 2005



  • "... Discover Magazine ...": Here's the link to the full interview with Meteorolgist William Gray.

  • "... Butterfly ...": There is a theory called the "Chaos Theory" which holds, in part, that a tiny change in an initial condition has a potentially enormous impact on the final outcome. According to Cal Tech, "The "Butterfly Effect", or more technically the "sensitive dependence on initial conditions", is the essence of chaos"

    The most common example (and the reason for its name) is a butterfly on the Southwestern coast of Africa sets up a minor disturbance in the airflow where it is flying, that minor disturbance is multiplied billions of times over by air and ocean currents, air and water temperatures, the status of sunspots and who knows what-all until it turns into a full-blown hurricane.

    An easily observable example of "sensitive dependence on initial conditions" is this: Let's say you are trying to catch a flight which leaves at 3:00 pm. You get to the airport with sufficient time to park in the daily parking garage, but as you pull up to the barrier to get your ticket the car in front of you takes the last available spot and the "Garage Full" sign comes down.

    You have to drive all the way out to the economy lot, wait for a shuttle bus (shlepping your bags on and off), then go to the ticket counter and through security. As you rush up to the gate from which your flight is leaving, the door has been closed, you miss your flight by a matter of seconds, so whatever meeting you were trying to get to will go on without you.

    Let's examine the butterfly effect: Completely out of your control or knowledge, the night before your trip the manager of a local restaurant put in his order for provisions to be delivered the next day - after the lunch rush is over.

    You leave for the airport in plenty of time, but get caught behind the double-parked truck unloading the provisions ordered by the restaurant manager.

    There are two cars coming the other way, so you have to wait until they clear. By the time you get around the truck the traffic light has turned red and you have to wait at the intersection.

    So, when you get to the airport, the car which enters the parking garage just in front of you causes the "Garage Full" light to come on - which is something which would not have happened had the restaunt manager asked for the provisions to be delivered before lunch, or if the truck had gotten to its location one minute later, or if there had not been on-coming traffic, or if the traffic light had been green when you got to the intersection. You would have beaten the car to the parking garage and you would have gotten the last spot, made your flight, and lived happily ever after.

    Chaos theory. Cool, huh?

  • Mullfoto of the Day

    A very wise young woman has exactly the right idea about how to watch a baseball game when the home team is down six-zip in the seventh.

    Catchy Caption of the Day

    Actual Caption: A racing pigeon belonging to Britain's Queen Elizabeth II has gone missing ahead of a big race.

    Hello? Get me Greta on the phone. Ix-nay on the Aruba thing. We've got a missing pigeon story we want you to cover.

    (AFP/POOL/File)

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